Forecasting

Recent Analysis Track Record

The most successful traders and investors, which have gathered decades of positive track record include information derived from technical analysis in their decision making.

Of course there are also exceptions. Warren Buffett for example doesn’t use technical analysis to our knowledge. However, he only experienced a bullish supercycle in his career. Would he have been as successful in the Japanese market environment of the 90’s and 00’s? European stocks have marked their all time high in early 2001. A buy and hold strategy was suboptimal in European market conditions as well. Some of Buffett’s investment wisdoms turned out painfully in these examples for as long as two decades!

There are certainly also critics to Elliott wave analysis. Their main argument is that they’ve seen many forecasts, which did not prove correct after all. We can confirm this statement! However, the reason behind that is that at least 80% of Elliott wave forecasts and labels we see around are terribly bad. They are lacking detail and do not respect elliott’s rules and guidelines. Technical analysis takes time and experience.

We have also seem many analysts sticking stubbornly to their initial forecast despite new and sometimes overwhelming information. They keep on arguing for their initial forecast instead of adjusting according to the new information set. It seems that they are more concerned about being „right“ instead of admitting that their initial forecast is less likely due to market progression.

Investing is about how one handles mistakes. Obviously we do also make mistakes and will continue to do so in the future. However, we have been more often consistently correct in our forecasts during the past two decades. Our mistake management is certainly contributing to that.

We have summarized on this webpage some of our recent forecasts and how they turned out since we’ve launched this website.