US 10Y

The 10-year treasury yield in the US looks like a 3 wave trend down since the 80’s. Our view is that the interest rate downside trend is about to finish soon. It may be that the market is in a contracting diagonal, which is typical for a terminal structure ahead of a trend change. Wave action since our wave (4) label looks choppy and sideways. We do expect a slightly higher level than the wave (4) high before the market reverses.

The entire case for our interpretation of this market will be invalid if the 10-year treasury yields exceed 2.9%.

Technical Analysis