Short-Term Oil Elliott Wave Analysis
Published 16th May 2018
There are no changes to our forecast. We expect a pullback that results into further upside. Long crude is a crowded trade. Net speculative positioning came off recently a bit. However, there is still ample of room for further unwinding. We expect the correction to get fed from further unwinding.
Published 9nd May 2018
We remain short-term bullish on crude as long as the nearest WTI contract trades above our blue dotted horizontal support region.
Oil ran up and made higher highs inside our light blue trend channel. The progress got confirmed by geopolitical newsflow. Moreover, the most important commodity price gained against a stronger US dollar. A breakout above the January 2018 high got further traction after being retested at the end of April 2018. Oil prices surpassed the solid blue trendline spanning back to June 2016 yesterday. We asses that as a fake breakout as part of a leading diagonal. Oil prices are likely to correct into the 66.50-67.00 region before resuming the uptrend.
A word of caution is appropriate as long as prices hang out above the solid blue line (around 69.75). A fake breakout has to be confirmed yet. The structure could easily extend up. The trend is up and surprises should be expected into the direction of the trend.
Mid-Term Oil Elliott Wave Analysis
Published 25th April 2018
A zig-zag is the most probable mid-term crude Elliott wave pattern. The initial bounce from the 2016 low makes the entire structure ambiguous. It may also be a double zig-zag.
The B-wave of primary degree took prices on a 1.5 year sideways ride. We expect swift price action to the upside after the triangle resolved.
The key takeaway here is that we see a 3 wave move after the triangle resolved. Could that be an already completed double zig-zag? It may be but we see slightly higher odds for the black count. Elliott’s guidelines suggest strong c-waves. We respect these guidelines especially as we see higher highs and higher lows.
That also means that crude should progress swiftly above critical levels. Two of them are highlighted in the very first chart below. They run around 66.50 and 54.75. We expect the lower level to hold if our mid-term bullish case is correct.
Long-Term Oil Elliott Wave Analysis
Published 15th November 2017
Price action has been exciting over the past couple of decades. WTI increased 15-fold from its levels in the late 90’s and had two magnificent crashes thereafter. We see crude oil to behave further in a complex manner. Mid-term, our Elliott wave analysis projects significant upside from the 2016 lows.
Long-term, there may be another few decades with crude oil in a trading range between $25 and $150. The sideways pattern makes also a fundamental sense in a time when electric cars are waiting for their breakthrough and gas or alternative fuels compete with crude oil as an energy source.