Dow Industrials

Summarizing Our Dow Jones Forecast

Published 9th February 2018 & validated 16th March 2018

The Dow is very close to the end of a medium-term cyclical trend, which started in 2010. Some parts of the respective rally will be corrected in the months ahead.

Short-Term Dow Jones Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 16th March 2018 @ 15:00 EST

We still assess the worldwide situation as topping action in risky assets. The DJIA index tops in a primary degree during this process.

We remain with our forecast from the past weeks: The Dow Jones Industrial Average is likely to continue its rally to the upside. Our case for the Dow Jones index on a standalone basis continues to be weaker than our calls for the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Nevertheless, it is highly unlikely that the Dow Jones drifts to the downside as the other two major indices rally. Hence, a positive drift to the upside has the highest odds for the Dow Jones  Industrials. It will most likely rally at least near the January highs.


Medium Term Dow Jones Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 17th February 2018

The Dow Jones is in wave I of a cycle trend, which started at the March 2009 bottom. The count below gives a reasonable wave and time relationships. Moreover, the count has been followed and confirmed down to subminuette degree over the years.

We forecast a sizable correction ahead of us in 2018. The correction in primary wave 4° either started already or will start in the weeks ahead. It should trace out as a deep and complex structure due to alternation guidelines.

Long-Term Dow Jones Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 31st October 2017

Medium term we are most likely in cycle wave I, which started at the March 2009 bottom. We believe that it is just wave I of supercycle wave (V) because it looks way to small in relation to wave (I) as of October 2017. Unfortunately, we cannot publish our longer charts for the Dow Industrials. However, we have published a longer dating chart for the S&P 500, which is similar. The start of supercycle wave (I) goes back to mid-1800! It takes further years and upside price action to get a right look. Moreover, it also fits our cross-equity market conclusion, which sees most European and Asian markets as bullish over the next decade. An inflation scenario may potentially play out and fit the environment.

Supercycle wave (IV) has the right look, alternates to wave (II), and retraced more than a Fibonacci 38.2% on a log scale. The retracement in wave (II) was very steep and a shallow wave (IV) is expected by following the Elliott wave guidelines. The wave action in between fits neatly together to an extended supercycle wave (III).

Technical Analysis