FTSE 100

Briefly

Published 29th March 2018 & amended 14th May 2018 

The FTSE 100 may have entered into a cyclical correction after reaching its January 2018 high. Patience during the correction will result in an attractive entry opportunity for UK equities. This may take several months to a couple of years. Medium-term, we forecast a secular bull market for the FTSE. It will last for the major part of the coming decade.

Short-Term FTSE 100 Elliott Wave Analysis

Published on 14th May 2018 

The short-term swing from the March 2018 lows starts showing some divergence on 4hour and below charts. This may signal a nearby correction.

We continue to weight the possibilities of an intermediate degree turn in January and a heavily extended ending diagonal fifth wave. Both patterns are far away from textbook behavior. The main takeaway for us remains that the FTSE 100 showed complex behavior around major tops in recent history. The top may be either behind us in January or ahead of us along the pale blue trend channel. That’s the most important conclusion.

Medium Term FTSE 100 Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 15th February 2018

The FTSE 100 has traced out a triangle structure, which ended in 2011. It looks similar to many other indices in continental Europe. We see the index take off to new highs despite short-term pullbacks. The light blue trend channel in the chart below is the beginning of cycle wave v. This wave is a secular bull market and will carry the FTSE higher for a major part of the coming decade.

Near-term we expect a retracement of intermediate wave (1) to carry at least into the 6,600-6,800 area. We see this pullback as a great “buy the dip” opportunity to invest in the UK stock market. We expect to see this retracement begin around Q1 2018.

Technical Analysis