Summary Of Our Nasdaq Forecast
Published 19th June 2018 & validated 17th July 2018
The Nasdaq 100 is on its way to finishing a medium-term cyclical trend (since 2010) at some point in 2018. We expect higher highs, higher volatility, and a substantial correction going forward.
Short-Term Nasdaq Elliott Wave Analysis
Published 13th July 2018 & amended 17th July 2018 (semi-last paragraph & chart)
The Nasdaq Elliott wave structure probably reached a mature stage. It is diverging in relationship to its longer-term trend.
A standalone picture of the index doesn’t provide any good guidance here anymore. The index may follow through to the upside as a 3rd wave extension, it may even reach its top very soon, or it may even go into a sideways movement. All of these are perfectly possible scenarios within the Elliott framework.
We seek some guidance from the other major US indices here. Those are sending a strong bullish signal if both indices advance another 1%-2% to the upside. We do expect to see the black scenario playing out in the Nasdaq if the other major indices march on and overcome their respective resistances within the next few trading days. Alternatively, a final spike is likely but only after a deeper pullback. That is depicted in the red scenario.
All in all, the ice appears to get thinner and thinner as the Nasdaq advances to the upside.
Medium-Term Nasdaq Elliott Wave Analysis
Published 6th April 2018 & amended 26th June 2018
The US American tech index most likely needs another down-up sequence in order to finish the current cycle. This is depicted in black.
There is another possible scenario, which we see at lower because we do not like labeling running flats. They are extremely rare. It is highlighted in red and shows the cycle at an end as soon as the current swing completes 5 waves of minuette degrees.
Long-Term Nasdaq Elliott Wave Analysis
Published 12th January 2018
The Nasdaq is near completion of a third wave of primary degree. The tech index shows decreasing momentum in its minor degree waves. Moreover, it overshot multiple trend channel resistance. Last but not least we are at wave and time relationships that signals the completion of intermediate wave (5). Minor wave 3 is extended and wave 1 is around a Fibonacci 78.60% of wave 5 at the moment we publish this. This suggests that the medium-term trend, which is depicted in blue, will come to an end as soon as the short term trend (described above) finishes.
It is likely that the correction of primary wave 4° will be shallow and complex as wave 2° was a sharp and deep zig-zag. Nevertheless, this will be most likely the biggest correction since the drop during the financial crisis in 2008! Our Nasdaq forecast leads to the conclusion that a trading approach will be more appropriate in the next few months.