Summary Of Our Nasdaq Forecast
Published 9th March 2018 & validated 18th May 2018
The Nasdaq 100 is on its way to reaching a medium-term cyclical trend (since 2010) at some point in 2018. We expect higher highs, higher volatility, and eventually a substantial correction.
Short-Term Nasdaq Elliott Wave Analysis
Published 15th of May @ 7:00 AM EST & amended 18th May (chart only)
The triangle scenario remains the most probable scenario for the Nasdaq 100. The US tech index probably traces minute wave (d) as we publish this update. However, the current swing starts showing first signs of fading. We see some divergence on 1h scales and below.
Our top two scenarios are depicted in the first chart below. We slightly prefer the black version. Our alternative scenario shows a complete (d)-wave around the current levels. Triangles are difficult patterns as they may easily extend. Odds are roughly 50/50 between both scenarios.
A third scenario is not shown in our charts. A jaw breaking third to the upside is still possible if the Nasdaq 100 set up a 1-2-1-2 into early April 2018. This is not impossible but at lower odds than both scenarios in our chart. We’ll deal with this scenario in more detail if we see momentum picking up.
All in all, we remain with our forecast that price action will most likely continue to the upside.
Medium-Term Nasdaq Elliott Wave Analysis
Published 6th April 2018 & amended 1st of May (chart only)
The Nasdaq 100 will most likely rally in the weeks ahead. The index went in a 3-wave pattern to its last all-time high. This is not a valid Elliott wave pattern. There must be some follow-up to the upside.
The US American tech index most likely needs another up-down-up sequence in order to finish the current cycle. This is depicted in black.
There is another possible scenario, which we see at lower because we do not like labeling running flats. They are extremely rare. It is highlighted in red and shows the cycle at an end as soon as the current swing completes 5 waves of minuette degrees.
Long-Term Nasdaq Elliott Wave Analysis
Published 12th January 2018
The Nasdaq is near completion of a third wave of primary degree. The tech index shows decreasing momentum in its minor degree waves. Moreover, it overshot multiple trend channel resistance. Last but not least we are at wave and time relationships that signals the completion of intermediate wave (5). Minor wave 3 is extended and wave 1 is around a Fibonacci 78.60% of wave 5 at the moment we publish this. This suggests that the medium-term trend, which is depicted in blue, will come to an end as soon as the short term trend (described above) finishes.
It is likely that the correction of primary wave 4° will be shallow and complex as wave 2° was a sharp and deep zig-zag. Nevertheless, this will be most likely the biggest correction since the drop during the financial crisis in 2008! Our Nasdaq forecast leads to the conclusion that a trading approach will be more appropriate in the next few months.