Published 8th November 2017 & amended 13th December 2017
We like the Indian stock market and think that it is at an interesting junction of its price pattern. Indian stocks are in the middle of a secular bull market and we see the BRIC success story to persist. Our Nifty elliott wave analysis concludes that long- and medium-term trends show up.
Short Term Trend
Published 13th December 2017
The very short term (days ahead) trend is unclear. There may be a double zig zag still in action. This is depicted by the black count in the very first chart below. However, we are talking here about the pea counting time frame. The big point is that our Nifty forecast is seeing a trend to the upside. We expect the previous wave (iv) low to hold and swing further to new highs. Our previous analysis further below is fully valid. We expect Indian stocks to rally well into 2018.
Published 6th December 2017
The Nifty seems to target the psychological relevant area of 10,000 points. It coincides with a 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the corresponding swing to the upside. Correction wave ii of (v) seems not to be complete as we publish this Nifty forecast. Once wave ii finishes the Nifty elliott wave pattern is looking like a rally well into the year 2018.
How about the case that November 6th high marked the end of wave (v) and therefore the entire wave i°? This would mean a bigger correction, possibly into the 8k levels… Wave action and momentum argue against this scenario. It would mean a very short (v) wave that is comparable to the subminuette waves of the entire uptrend since February 2016. Time and space speak therefore against that. Moreover the top of wave i was reached this November on maximum momentum for the swing since our wave label (iv). That is also a typical sign for more upside.
All in all our Nifty technical analysis concludes that higher levels will be on the menu weeks ahead!
Medium Term Trend
Published 25th October and validated 13th December 2017
The BRIC story seems to be confirmed from our Nifty technical analysis point of view. The Nifty looks like it is in a 3rd of 3rd wave currently. Upside trend should at least continue or even accelerate. A trend channel support, connecting waves (2) and 2, should hold up for the coming months into 2018 if our Nifty elliott wave analysis is correct. This trend is highlighted in pale blue below.