Short-Term EURCHF Elliott Wave Analysis
Published 15th March 2018
We have arrived at an interesting junction in the EUR/USD currency pair. The black count implies further CHF strength for the weeks ahead. The entire drop off the January high counts as an impulse. An impulse implies further weakness into at least another impulse to the downside.
The second scenario is depicted in red. It basically states that the entire correction is done already. A 38.2% Fibonacci has been reached already. The currency pair may trace out an impulse and establish itself above a multiyear trend channel.
Odds slightly favor the black count. It just due to the short timeframe that the correction has seen, which is a rather weak argument. The upcoming wave action will be interesting here!
Long-Term EURCHF Elliott Wave Analysis
Published 24th October 2017 & validated 20th February 2018
The EURCHF has marked its bottom according to our Elliott wave analysis. The panic and margin call triggered crash after the Swiss National Bank announced to step back from defending the 1.20 mark in early 2015 market probably the end of cycle wave V.
We still need technical confirmation for this scenario. Fundamentally pretty much everything is overvalued by any measure in Switzerland. More important their safe haven model, which worked over the past century is currently also at risk.
The Swiss National Bank sterilized its forex holdings by buying big into risky asset classes. As a result, more than one year worth of Swiss GDP has been invested across the world. If we get a 2007-2009 crash, the Swiss will certainly be exposed. The safe haven character is a music of the past. Our long-term EURCHF forecast is that a secular bull market has started in 2015.
This is good news for Swiss exporters and regional economy around the Swiss border!