Short Term EURCHF Forecast
Published 6th December 2017
Last update below is fully valid. However, the wedge may extend into a new interim high. Last drop looks corrective. Therefore we assume that it was wave (iv) and not early substructures of wave 2 already.
Published 26th November 2017
The EURCHF is approaching interesting levels in an interesting manner. It approaches trend line resistance of the downside trend, which started in 2007. This trend is depicted in light blue in our chart on this page and runs currently around the 1.17 level. Interestingly it seems to approach this trend in a wedge pattern. The waves within the wedge subdivide into 3-wave zigzags. Our short term EURCHF forecast is a reversal after it trades into the 1.1725-1.1775 range.
After the subsequent retrace of wave 2 there is plenty of room to make up for. The exaggeration of the past will be certainly reverted. Moreover it seems likely that the long term trend changed in the EURCHF rate.
Long Term EURCHF Forecast
Published 24th October 2017 & validated 6th December 2017
The EURCHF has marked its bottom according to our elliott wave analysis. The panic and margin call triggered stop / loss after the Swiss National Bank announced to step back from defending the 1.20 mark in early 2015 market probably the end of cycle wave V.
We still need technical confirmation for this scenario. Fundamentally pretty much everything is overvalued by any measure in Switzerland. More important their safe haven model, which worked over the past century is currently also at risk.
The Swiss National Bank sterilised its forex holdings by buying big into risky asset classes. As a result more than one year worth of Swiss GDP has been invested across the world. If we get a 2007-2009 crash, the Swiss will certainly be exposed. The safe haven character is music of the past. Our long term EURCHF forecast is that a secular bull market has started in 2015.