Short-Term EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 17th May 2018

The EURUSD is most likely approaching another relief bounce. We see a divergence in our short-term strength indicators.  Our two preferred scenarios are depicted in the very first chart below. Both show a bounce, which eventually resolves to the downside.

The currency pair still shows overcrowded conditions that need to see further unwinding. Moreover, the technical picture appears to short in terms of time and price progress. The drop from the February high is unlikely to contribute all of the correction to the 2017 upside trend (blue channel).

Patience is now required for another attractive risk/reward trading opportunity. It will most likely arise as soon as we see a 3-wave bounce on the upside. 

Medium Term EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 19th February 2018

The euro probably ended its medium-term downward trend at the very beginning of 2017. The respective correction, which is depicted by the pale blue trend channel counts as a double zig-zag. The EUR/USD traced out from that low an impulse into February 2018. We are expecting a corrective 3-wave move to the downside before the greenback weakens further. The correction will most likely take several months into 2018 before minor wave 2 eventually finishes.

Long-Term EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 19th February

The EUR/USD probably traces out a contracting ending diagonal of cycle degree long term. We do see fundamental support for our case. International trade is among the key focus points of the Trump administration. A weakening of the US Dollar seems to play a role in reaching the set goals of increasing exports. There has been a long history of US Treasury Secretary’s verbally supporting a strong Dollar. Mr. Mnuchin seems not to convince markets in this regard.

Technical Analysis