Short-Term EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 15th March 2018 

There is a time to go long, there is a time to go short, and there is a time to go on vacation. The latest applied during the past couple of weeks for the EUR/USD for most who are not in the scalping / option writing business. The US Dollar continues to show 3-wave patterns in either direction. There is no new information, which we can derive from our last update. We did not get further confirmation of a reversal. Nevertheless, we continue to remain bearish on the currency pair due to the terminal Elliott wave structure.

Published 8th March 2018 

We’ll stick with our interpretation further below. The wave action since March 5th looks ambiguous. We label a 3-wave correction into the drop today. A good case can be made that it is a 5 wave impulse. It may well be. However, the 5th wave looks rather short and our DXY cheat sheet looks much more like a 3-wave move.

Much more interesting will be the behavior of the current swing to the downside. Another low makes quite a statement for our reversal case. Otherwise, we’d be looking at a very disproportionate and big corrective wave (iv).

Odds speak for a bearish EUR/USD continuation despite still lacking confirmation.

Published 5th March 2018

The EUR/USD Elliott wave structure counts as a terminal pattern of minor degree into the February 2018 high. However, the drop from the February 2018 top counts best as a 3-wave zig-zag. The subsequent bounce looks not done yet. It traced out a small impulse since March 1st, 2018. Therefore, the entire short-term pattern counts best as a leading diagonal to the downside. Unfortunately, this is not the best possible confirmation for a significant reversal from the February 2018 top.

Watching how the rebound unfolds further is important now.

Medium Term EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 19th February 2018 

The euro probably ended its medium-term downward trend at the very beginning of 2017. The respective correction, which is depicted by the pale blue trend channel counts as a double zig-zag. The EUR/USD traced out from that low an impulse into February 2018. We are expecting a corrective 3-wave move to the downside before the greenback weakens further. The correction will most likely take several months into 2018 before minor wave 2 eventually finishes.

Long-Term EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 19th February 

The EUR/USD probably traces out a contracting ending diagonal of cycle degree long term. We do see fundamental support for our case. International trade is among the key focus points of the Trump administration. A weakening of the US Dollar seems to play a role in reaching the set goals of increasing exports. There has been a long history of US Treasury Secretary’s verbally supporting a strong Dollar. Mr. Mnuchin seems not to convince markets in this regard.

Technical Analysis