Short-Term EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 25th June 2018 & amended 16th July 2018 (chart only)

The EURUSD Elliott wave pattern most likely continues to the downside. However, a temporary rest in form of some sideways correction is probably incomplete. It is rather short in terms of time and further sideways extension is likely. We expect it to resolve to the downside eventually. The area around 1.115-1.125 forms a cluster of long-term S/R. Moreover, it coincides with a 61.8% Fibonacci. We expect the EURUSD to target that level sooner or later and will be looking for support there.

Additionally, we expect to see a different character from the final swing. It could be for example either steeper or shallower than price action into June. The same applies to a potential minuette wave (c) to the upside. A strong and sharp move outside of the red trend channel would not surprise.

Medium Term EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 19th February 2018

The euro probably ended its medium-term downward trend at the very beginning of 2017. The respective correction, which is depicted by the pale blue trend channel counts as a double zig-zag. The EUR/USD traced out from that low an impulse into February 2018. We are expecting a corrective 3-wave move to the downside before the greenback weakens further. The correction will most likely take several months into 2018 before minor wave 2 eventually finishes.

Long-Term EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 19th February

The EUR/USD probably traces out a contracting ending diagonal of cycle degree long term. We do see fundamental support for our case. International trade is among the key focus points of the Trump administration. A weakening of the US Dollar seems to play a role in reaching the set goals of increasing exports. There has been a long history of US Treasury Secretary’s verbally supporting a strong Dollar. Mr. Mnuchin seems not to convince markets in this regard.

Technical Analysis