Medium Term USDCHF Forecast
Published 21st November 2017 & validated 14th December 2017
It took all through 2015-2017 to complete a complex corrective structure. The macd went into a flatline as a result of that. The next big move according to our USDCHF forecast should be to the upside after wave 2 completes. A new secular trend should become visible in the next years down the road.
However, the big question is if wave 2 completed in September 2017 or not. We may have just seen the initial part of wave 2. The short term structure of the USDCHF exchange rate from Dec. 2016 – Sep. 2017 is tricky instead of providing more hints to our question unfortunately. The same applies to the wave structure since September 2017 until now. We have no clear impulse to the upside since the Sep. 17 low. Nevertheless, the current move up may still extend into an impulse, resulting into wave (i) of i°. It is really 50/50 as of right now. We’ll watch momentum indicators such as the macd closely for further evidence.
All in all not a good risk/reward for a swing trade right now.
Long Term USDCHF Forecast
Published 17th October 2017 & validated 14th December 2017
The USDCHF completed a long term diagonal. It is cycle wave V and started in in the early 70s.
We see the diagonal as completed with the drop in 2011. It looks like an overthrow, which reverted quickly. This is the end of cycle wave V! A secular bear market has started for the Swiss Franc against the US Dollar in 2011.