Short-Term USDCHF Elliott Wave Analysis

Published May 13th, 2018

The only change to the April 29th update is that minute wave iii(circle) is likely to stretch slightly further to the upside. Everything else below remains valid.

Published April 29th, 2018

Most traders and investors were caught off guard by market action that we forecasted. Strenght indicators need to cool down at this point. We expect the current swing to touch parity on decreasing momentum before it gets corrected within a B-wave. The followup swing is likely to carry into autumn 2018. 

Medium Term USDCHF Elliott Wave Analysis

Published April 29th, 2018

The USD/CHF choppy rebound from intermediate wave (4) morphed into a proper impulse. The currency pair is attempting a breakout of the green downtrend, which we’ve tracked for several months. The strength of the current advance is impressive. Upside momentum reached levels, which we have seen only twice during the past decade. At the same time, we see a heavily overcrowded trade against the US Dollar. All in all, strong arguments for a trend reversal in February 2018.

Long-Term USDCHF Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 20th, February 2018

Many traditional chartists describe the current long-term chart as “bottom building”. There are indeed opposing forces working against each other. On the on hand, we have a cycle trend, which finished in 2011. On the other hand, there is some formation building that will eventually resolve to the upside.

These days it is the old world vs. the new world in Switzerland. The old being the safe haven stable country that stays out of political crisis and wars. The perfect storage place for honesty and not honestly earned money. The new world brings first and foremost leverage into the game. The Swiss National Bank took on with or without a mandate the freedom to sterilize its forex holdings with risky assets. Their investment exceeds Swiss GDP.

Eventually, foreign investors who sought a safe haven will realize that the world is not going down but that their CHF is trending down. Unwinding their position will lead to a trend enforcement to the upside.

The USDCHF completed a long-term diagonal. It is cycle wave V and started in in the early 70s. 

We see the diagonal as completed with the drop in 2011. It looks like an overthrow, which reverted quickly. This is the end of cycle wave V! A secular bear market has started for the Swiss Franc against the US Dollar in 2011.

Technical Analysis