Short-Term USDCHF Elliott Wave Analysis

Published March 15th, 2018

It is still a rather weak case but nevertheless the most probable at the moment. The USD/CHF traced out a choppy rebound from its February 16th low. However, it is sizable. Another spike and we reach into a 50% Fibonacci of the entire wave coming all the way from parity. That’s not impossible but unusual for a fourth wave.

The currency pair remained well within the green downtrend. As of now, we see the trend up and eagerly wait for some form of motive wave to develop from the February 2018 low. The picture gets confirmed from a bird’s eye view. Generally, we expect a US Dollar strengthening across the board as well as risk inclination across investors.

Medium Term USDCHF Elliott Wave Analysis

Published February 20th, 2018

Odds are heavily shifting towards a leading diagonal scenario for the USDCHF. This is conditional that the currency pair does not encounter a waterfall drop within the next few weeks. The big question is now if the current wave extends to the downside before getting above parity or not.

Here again, the CHF/xxx pairs are among the most difficult to analyze. Arguments such as right look and spacial retracement speak for red. Cross-market correlation, as well as time, speak for black. This all ends up with a tough call.

For practical reasons, we slightly favor black unless we see a cross-market confirmation of another broad-based USD. A word of warning remains with analysis and practical implementation. A look back into the CHF behavior in 2011 and 2015 should make everyone cautious about stop loss levels. This means not only placing s/l but also relying too much on them. The currency pair remains a risky business!

Long-Term USDCHF Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 20th, February 2018

Many traditional chartists describe the current long-term chart as “bottom building”. There are indeed opposing forces working against each other. On the on hand, we have a cycle trend, which finished in 2011. On the other hand, there is some formation building that will eventually resolve to the upside.

These days it is the old world vs. the new world in Switzerland. The old being the safe haven stable country that stays out of political crisis and wars. The perfect storage place for honesty and not honestly earned money. The new world brings first and foremost leverage into the game. The Swiss National Bank took on with or without a mandate the freedom to sterilize its forex holdings with risky assets. Their investment exceeds Swiss GDP.

Eventually, foreign investors who sought a safe haven will realize that the world is not going down but that their CHF is trending down. Unwinding their position will lead to a trend enforcement to the upside.

The USDCHF completed a long-term diagonal. It is cycle wave V and started in in the early 70s. 

We see the diagonal as completed with the drop in 2011. It looks like an overthrow, which reverted quickly. This is the end of cycle wave V! A secular bear market has started for the Swiss Franc against the US Dollar in 2011.

Technical Analysis