Short-Term USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 15th July 2018

The USDJPY Elliott wave pattern penetrated two of its medium-term trends to the downside last week. Moreover, wave action looks incomplete to the upside short-term. Therefore, we assign higher odds that this is not a fake breakout but rather fades after some followthrough. Right now, the ball is in the bulls court. It’s up to them how far they carry the current swing to the upside.

We do expect a reversal sooner or later. However, there is simply not much evidence for a quick turnaround currently.

Mid-Term USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 15th July 2018

The USDJPY Elliott wave structure is most likely tracing one of two scenarios that eventually resolve to the downside. The black scenario tracks early wave action within a (C)-wave of intermediate degree. Odds increase for the black scenario if the breakout above the blue and green trend channels turns out to be a fake breakout within the next couple of weeks. The red scenario suggests an incomplete intermediate wave (B). It could trace a triangle (as depicted in red) or a double-three correction. Further extension within the orange trend channel shifts odds towards the red scenario.

All in all, we expect the general US dollar weakness to continue sooner or later.

Long-Term USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 2nd May 2018

We see the USD/JPY in a secular sideways movement. The Yen appreciated since WW2 versus the US Dollar and formed a triangle in the first decade of the new millennium. We see the post triangle thrust as completed in late 2011.

Basically, we can say “after the triangle is before the triangle” for the USD/JPY. We are probably in cycle wave IV, which is likely to be complex (alternation) as wave cycle wave II was simple. Our usual suspect is indeed a triangle. This means a sideways trading range for the next decade.

Primary wave A° of this complex structure is probably complete already. It looks like a zigzag pattern.


Technical Analysis