Short Term USDJPY Forecast

Published 15th December 2017

The USDJPY has corrected the drop from November 6th in a double zig zag structure. It retraced nearly a 78.6% fibonacci of the previous wave. The subsequent drop from our wave-(ii) label counts impulsive as we publish this. Our USDJPY forecast is followthrough to the downside. A relief bounce may happen before.

The bigger picture is that wave B further unfolds to the downside. We are in the last leg (wave c°) of wave B, which should form as as 5-wave impulse to the downside. We expect price action to take place within the flash blue trend channel.

Mid Term USDJPY Forecast

Published 7th November 2017 & validated 15th December 2017

We see the USD/JPY in a secular sideways movement. The Yen appreciated since WW2 versus the US Dollar and formed a triangle in the first decade of the new millenium. We see the post triangle thrust as completed into late 2011.

Basically we can say “after the triangle is before the triangle” for the USD/JPY. We are in cycle wave IV, which is likely to be complex (alternation) as wave cycle wave II was simple. Our usual suspect is indeed a triangle. This means a sideways trading range for the next decades.

We are forming primary wave A° of this complex structure. Wave A° looks complex as well. Our usdjpy forecast is a continuation with short term Yen strenght into 2018. This is depicted in blue in the chart below.

Technical Analysis