USDJPY

Short-Term USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 16th May 2018

The USDJPY Elliott wave structure is approaching a relief correction. Momentum cooled down a bit since our last update. Position readings coming from extreme US Dollar bearishness saw some unwinding. However, there is ample of room left for more JPY unwinding. We expect to see the biggest yen appreciation since March soon. Nevertheless, it will be most likely just a correction within minute wave ii(circle).

Thereafter, we expect the general US dollar weakness to continue. Probably USD weakness across all majors with the exception of the GBP will resume in autumn 2018.

Mid-Term USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 2nd May 2018

The USDJPY Elliott wave structure is probably building a base channel within its (C)-wave of intermediate degree. We see strong momentum as we publish this. Moreover, sentiment and position readings showed extreme US Dollar bearishness during the past weeks. Minute wave ii(circle) is probably not complete yet. It will likely need another few weeks until it is done.

Thereafter, we expect the general US dollar weakness to continue. The pale green downside trend will probably remain a good guidance mid-term.

Long-Term USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 2nd May 2018

We see the USD/JPY in a secular sideways movement. The Yen appreciated since WW2 versus the US Dollar and formed a triangle in the first decade of the new millennium. We see the post triangle thrust as completed in late 2011.

Basically, we can say “after the triangle is before the triangle” for the USD/JPY. We are probably in cycle wave IV, which is likely to be complex (alternation) as wave cycle wave II was simple. Our usual suspect is indeed a triangle. This means a sideways trading range for the next decade.

Primary wave A° of this complex structure is probably complete already. It looks like a zigzag pattern.

 

Technical Analysis