Short-Term USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 12th March 2018

Both versions discussed in our March 5th update further below remain most probable at the moment. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY seems to have traced a 3-wave move to the upside from the March low. It may morph into a 5-wave impulse. Besides that, not much can be added to the info below at this point.

Published 5th March 2018

The USDJPY counts as a terminal Elliott wave structure to the downside. Momentum indicators confirm our interpretation of a fifth wave. They diverge with price action into the most recent low. Moreover, wave action of the past couple of weeks appears to have formed a triangle. Therefore, we forecast that a reversal to the upside is imminently around the corner for the USD/JPY.

Nevertheless, we want to point out that the complication within minuette wave (ii) opens the possibility that we are just ending minuette wave (iii) around the next days. Basically, minute wave (ii) may have started one swing earlier than labeled on our chart below. This implies that we finish 9 waves since December 2018 as we publish this. Moreover, it means that we should see another 3-wave correction to the upside before wave (v) finally puts an end to wave B. Wave (iv) is likely to be shallow and simple due to alternation guidelines.

Hence, short USDJPY positions remain a risky business with or without a new low ahead.

Mid Term USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 14th February 2018

We see the USD/JPY in a secular sideways movement. The Yen appreciated since WW2 versus the US Dollar and formed a triangle in the first decade of the new millennium. We see the post triangle thrust as completed in late 2011.

Basically, we can say “after the triangle is before the triangle” for the USD/JPY. We are in cycle wave IV, which is likely to be complex (alternation) as wave cycle wave II was simple. Our usual suspect is indeed a triangle. This means a sideways trading range for the next decades.

We are forming primary wave A° of this complex structure. Primary wave A looks like a complex W-X-Y pattern. Our USDJPY forecast is a continuation of short term Yen strenght into 2018. This is depicted by the pale blue trend in the chart below.

Technical Analysis