A slightly lower low remains our base case for gold. Sentiment remains depressed throughout the entire precious metals complex. Moreover, gold, silver, and platinum diverged into a non-confirming low to each other. Silver was the laggard during that process. Last but not least, we continue to expect a final leg down for the EUR/USD before bullish price action unfolds. Gold correlated positively with the EUR/USD in recent history. All in all, these are hints of a nearby trend reversal for gold.
Could we have missed the turn already? There are roughly 25% odds that we did. The next hint regarding that is an impulsive crossing of the 1,240 figure. Minute wave ii(circle) was complex and deep. A 38% Fibonacci retracement is still shallow for a fourth wave and meets alternation guidelines. It runs around 1,238. Taking that out would have probably bullish implications.
The short-term analysis above is a reprint of our weekly assessment of the gold market. It was published for our subscribers yesterday.