We have identified a major if not the Bitcoin top with surgical precision. We were bullish and forecasted higher highs until December 8th. 2017. That day we projected one last wave into a new top, which we forecasted to be at least a major if not the final top for the Bitcoin.
Our next update on December 17th 2017 called the top within a wedge formation in real time. The key takeaway here is that we were bullish and did not persistently call a reversal. This was our very first call of a significant top!
Our December 17th 2017 call most likely nailed the top within a couple of hours. The analysis that led to the conclusion combined fundamentals, behavioral economics, and technical analysis.
Our publications encompass just the tip of an iceberg. There is much more work behind it. We had to look into fundamentals in this particular case before coming up with an answer to questions like:
- How do bubbles behave?
- What’s exactly behind cryptocurrencies?
- Which cryptocurrencies have advantages over others?
- What the typical life cycle of innovations/inventions?
- Which currency is likely to survive long term?
Our best answers to these as well as many other questions around the subject were combined with our knowledge of economic fundamentals and crowd psychology. The precision could not be matched by applying economics or technical analysis on a standalone basis. Our top call was sent out on December 17, 2017. That was on a Sunday just before Christmas. Almost nobody was trading or writing analysis around that time. All that was hard work and genuine interest. Last but not least, we were fortunate enough to identify a wedge at a point when multiple degree Elliott waves came to an end. We knew that it could end there and were alert for any hints. That made it possible to identify the or a significant top of the bitcoin within a couple of hours of its top tick! Hence, a systematic approach led to our call rather than genius or pure luck.
We concluded that the Bitcoin bubble burst and ceased our cryptocurrency coverage on June 2nd, 2018. The final chart below shows Google searches for the term Bitcoin. The hump shape is very typical for bubbles that were observed in the past. A very similar function can be found in epidemics research. It depicts mathematically how epidemics spread until they disappear. The parallels regarding epidemics and past bubbles were observed by Professor Robert J. Shiller from Yale.
The peak probably occurred in Dec. 2017. We see that chart as substantial evidence to our interpretation that the bubble has burst.