Evidence-Based Investing
Stephane Bancel dumped more than 100,000 stocks of his Moderna holdings during the past 4 weeks. Nothing unusual if he wasn’t the firm’s CEO and the biotech company reported a 95% covid-19 vaccine efficacy today. Optimists might argue that he crossed the shares with a market maker counterparty as a delta hedge because he just purchased …
Control persons (significant equity ownership) lightened up on their equity holdings. The Insider Transactions Ratio reached bearish territory in early November. Subsequently, a significant reversal unfolded and carried the index back to neutral territory. Insider sentiment is, contrary to investor sentiment, a conformist and not a contrarian indicator.
The AAII Sentiment Index received much attention last week. We witnessed a bullish stampede and contrarian investors became excited. Here is another angle of the noisy indicator. A look at its 200DMA reveals a downside trend since GFC. The smoothed trend is currently encountering support!