CategoryComplimentary

Preserving purchasing power is the primary reason most long-term investors hold gold. The precious metal did not meet their objective recently as inflation was up 6.8% in the U.S. during November 2021. Inflation has been consistently rising throughout 2021 and we have not witnessed price levels increase as much since the 1980s. Gold corrected throughout …

The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital’s estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That’s relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession …

Equities decoupled from the underlying macro data. Many thought that the corona crash could fix that, but it didn’t. Valuations became even more expensive instead. Several reliable indicators are as stretched as they have never been before. An example is the composite market value relative to GDP. It stands at more than double the US …

US equities recorded the best month of the year this October. A strong rally took the broad-based market to new all-time highs. The first week in November continued just as October ended. NYSE, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, A/D Lines, and Value Line Geometric Line finished last week at all-time highs. The Good Momentum …

This September has been disappointing for most equity investors. The broad-based S&P 500 index corrected roughly 5% and investor sentiment deteriorated further. However, those who read our most recent write-ups know that the recent correction wasn’t surprising. A 5%-10% correction has been overdue, according to long-term market statistics. The S&P 500 increased for more than 200 …

Stocks are not done to the upside. Technicals remain constructive despite a likely 5%-10% dip. However, the air is getting very thin for bulls up here. Moreover, the long-term outlook is bearish. Extremely expensive valuations and evidence of excessive speculation among investors lead to this conclusion. The buy-the-dip crowd is jumping in more rapidly as …