Published 1st April 2020

Odds are roughly 60/40 in favor of the black path.

Red is likely to unfold if this week’s low gets crossed again to the downside in the WTI contract. Otherwise, we witnessed a primary degree turn already and black plays out.

Downside continuation, within the red scenario, leads to the S/R cluster between 16 and 17. That is multi-decade support. WTI did not trade for long below that area. The black scenario assumes a fake breakout, which is likely if crude reverses quickly and stays above 22.50.

Sentiment and positioning did not move along lately. The most recent slump is probably because of forced liquidations.

It is time to turn bullish on crude! We expect a sharp turn up sooner or later.

The analysis above is a historical abstract of our WTI Crude Premium Analysis. Subscribers can access multiple timeframes, which are not displayed on this page.