Published 8th May 2019

The black count is most likely. It shows a cyclical reversal in late April. Crude dropped sharply. The initial bearish pattern could be either a leading diagonal or a 1-2-1-2 sequence. Dropping below the last interim low, which is marked with the blue dotted horizontal line, signals further downside short-term.

The red count remains possible and is non-negligible at this point. It becomes unlikely if we witness either a fading 3-wave upside correction or the blue-dotted line gets crossed.

Sentiment remains unchanged. Similarities between the sentiment picture in early Summer 2015 and today remain present. Crude plunged into a multi-year low from that set-up back then. All in all, the next big swing is most likely on the downside. A slightly higher recovery high won’t change this conclusion.

The analysis above is a historical abstract of our WTI Crude Premium Analysis. Subscribers can access multiple timeframes, which are not displayed on this page.