Published 2nd January 2019 & amended 13th January 2019 (chart & last paragraph)
The CAC 40 is trading below the long-term S/R (red line). The technical picture shows a near complete bearish impulse from the May 2018 orthodox high.
The bigger picture remains bearish. Equity indices worldwide diverged to each other over the past few months. Their all-time high or recovery high occurred months apart from other major indices. That’s a typical phenomenon around cyclical tops and bottoms. The trend turned most likely down. A downside price/sentiment feedback loop is likely to unfold in Europe. France won’t be able to circumvent the negative spiral.
The bearish swing from the May 2018 high does not fulfill the requirements of a terminal Elliott wave pattern. At least one more down-up-down sequence is required. The subsequent bounce is likely to fill a few big opening gaps within the December downswing. Equity indices closed more than 80% of these gaps historically.