Summary Of Our Nasdaq Forecast
Published 19th June 2018 & validated 14th August 2018
The Nasdaq 100 is on its way to finishing a medium-term cyclical trend (since 2010) at some point in 2018. We expect higher highs, higher volatility, and a substantial correction going forward.
Short-Term Nasdaq Elliott Wave Analysis
Published 14th August 2018
Our Nasdaq Elliott wave analysis from the 31st of July remains perfectly valid. Price action left an opening gap from the selloff in late July, which we labeled as wave b. That’s another piece of evidence that prices are not done to the upside for now. Gaps tended to get closed historically most often.
However, the current correction is probably incomplete right now. Wave structure looks best with another drop before minuette wave (y) completes. It is still rather short with respect to time and price retracement. Nevertheless, the key takeaway remains that the Nasdaq 100 is most likely within a correction that resolves to the upside sooner or later.
Another interesting observation is that all major US indices are showing different wave patterns as we publish this. That’s a sign or sprout of divergence. It fits our topping process in risky assets worldwide case. Equity markets may be getting ready to show non-confirming highs.
Published 31st July 2018 & amended 10th August 2018 (chart & middle paragraph)
The latest high counts best as a 3-wave advance. This is probably part of a triangle or double-three correction. That fits Elliott’s guidelines for a sideways and shallow fourth wave of minute degree. We expect the Nasdaq to consolidate sideways before resolving into a cyclical high. The orange trend channel should provide guidance if our assessment is correct, which means it should roughly hold as support.
The major US blue-chip indices show some divergence within price and strength right now. This hints to a nearby correction before the rally carries on to the upside. It fits into our Nasdaq’s picture. The black count remains most probable. The second most likely alternative is similar to the black count and not depicted on our charts. Basically, minute wave iv(circle) could have ended on July 30th. The subsequent rally, which we label as (x) would be minuette wave (i) instead. There is no difference between both labels right now. It will manifest later once the next swing up completes.
All in all, the Nasdaq Elliott wave structure probably reached a mature stage. It is diverging in relationship to its longer-term trend.
Medium-Term Nasdaq Elliott Wave Analysis
Published 6th April 2018 & amended 26th June 2018
The US American tech index most likely needs another down-up sequence in order to finish the current cycle. This is depicted in black.
There is another possible scenario, which we see at lower because we do not like labeling running flats. They are extremely rare. It is highlighted in red and shows the cycle at an end as soon as the current swing completes 5 waves of minuette degrees.
Long-Term Nasdaq Elliott Wave Analysis
Published 12th January 2018
The Nasdaq is near completion of a third wave of primary degree. The tech index shows decreasing momentum in its minor degree waves. Moreover, it overshot multiple trend channel resistance. Last but not least we are at wave and time relationships that signals the completion of intermediate wave (5). Minor wave 3 is extended and wave 1 is around a Fibonacci 78.60% of wave 5 at the moment we publish this. This suggests that the medium-term trend, which is depicted in blue, will come to an end as soon as the short term trend (described above) finishes.
It is likely that the correction of primary wave 4° will be shallow and complex as wave 2° was a sharp and deep zig-zag. Nevertheless, this will be most likely the biggest correction since the drop during the financial crisis in 2008! Our Nasdaq forecast leads to the conclusion that a trading approach will be more appropriate in the next few months.