Published 26th February 2019
The price action of the past few days changed odds among the most likely scenarios. The key takeaway is that another drop below the Dec. 18 lows remains most likely. We’ll have to consider evidence step by step as the next downturn unfolds.
The orange and yellow trends from the late December 2018 low are most likely part of a corrective A-B-C advance. Weakening momentum readings and the aggregate macro picture support the case that the bullish swing from the late December 2018 lows is very close to fading. A break of the yellow trend support is the next hint that the sharp advance of the past couple of months fades. A subsequent break of the 2,613-2,635 support cluster establishes the corrective A-B-C pattern of minor degree.
All in all, a nearby fade remains most likely. The two most likely cases target below the late December 2018 lows.