Short-Term EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 13th August 2018

Bulls got cooked slowly but thoroughly during the past couple of months. The EURUSD Elliott wave triangle resolved to the downside. It sent shock waves through the markets since last Friday. The macro theme is now “risk off”.

The EURUSD is now probably tracing its c-wave of minute degree to the downside. We have omitted the fourth wave label for the action of the past couple of months. Reasons being the right look as well as alternation to the second wave.

The most important currency worldwide is likely to progress to the downside withing the red trend channel. Wave structure looks incomplete at this point. However, it may not precisely turn out as our black path eventually. The main takeaway here is that minute wave c(circle) is too short in terms of time and price progress. The yellow marked target area around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement appears like a better fit at this moment. We’ll have to let wave structure do its work. Meanwhile, we remain short-term bullish on the buck.


Medium Term EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 19th February 2018

The euro probably ended its medium-term downward trend at the very beginning of 2017. The respective correction, which is depicted by the pale blue trend channel counts as a double zig-zag. The EUR/USD traced out from that low an impulse into February 2018. We are expecting a corrective 3-wave move to the downside before the greenback weakens further. The correction will most likely take several months into 2018 before minor wave 2 eventually finishes.

Long-Term EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis

Published 19th February

The EUR/USD probably traces out a contracting ending diagonal of cycle degree long term. We do see fundamental support for our case. International trade is among the key focus points of the Trump administration. A weakening of the US Dollar seems to play a role in reaching the set goals of increasing exports. There has been a long history of US Treasury Secretary’s verbally supporting a strong Dollar. Mr. Mnuchin seems not to convince markets in this regard.

Technical Analysis