Published 9th September 2019
Odds shifted slightly towards the red scenario. The spike from early September counts best as an impulse. Another swing to the upside may reveal more about the true intentions and it looks likely to happen. The question is how far the next swing to the upside gets. Trading above 1.11 breaks the red downside trend support. Follow-through above 1.1164 breaks the entire lower-lows and lower-highs sequence from late June. The current setup looks like we are going to see an attack towards the red trend support.
Both scenarios are just short of a 3rd of 3rd wave. The black scenario gets into serious trouble if the red trend support gets taken out convincingly. This kind of price action is a first sign of confirmation that the EUR/USD saw a reversal of multiple degrees in early September. Alternatively, another break of the early September lows could result in a larger drop to the downside. It counts as well as a 3rd of 3rd on the downside.
All in all, the conclusion from the short-term update remains valid despite a slight bias towards the red scenario.
The analysis above is a historical abstract of our EUR/USD Premium Analysis. Subscribers can access multiple timeframes, which are not displayed on this page.