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S&P 500 – Retesting The Low

Risky assets unfolded a sharp rebound over the past week. The major U.S. equity indices rallied by more than 20% off their most recent lows. Market participants, professional and retail, piled into the market and bought everything they could. Last ...
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Don’t Panic – Apply Evidence!

The idea behind publishing free articles was to convey institutional asset management know-how and help investors navigate the markets. Our approach is often contrarian to public consensus. Therefore, many disagree with our content. Nonetheless, those who followed us know that we expressed ...
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China Shot The U.S. Equity Bull

Those who followed us know that our proprietary model concluded a high probability of entering a recession in 2020. The coronavirus outbreak came on top of that. It is most likely the straw that broke the camel's back as it ...
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Cyclical Commodities Don’t Buy The Reflation

Nokia lost its crown as the world's largest mobile phone manufacturer a while ago. They failed to adapt to changing circumstances as Apple launched the iPhone in 2007. Instead, Nokia continued investing in its proprietary Symbian platform. Meanwhile, the market ...
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U.S. Equities – Wheels Come Off

Retailers reach peak sales during the holiday season and relatively weak turnover in the subsequent period. They are aware and well prepared for this cyclicality. A similar relationship holds for the business cycle. Although the pattern fluctuates less regularly, business ...
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Macroeconomic Indicators Signal A Recession

"The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions" - Paul Samuelson Significant equity market drawdowns have not always been followed by a fundamental confirmation in form of a recession. Paul Samuelson, among others, recognized this empirical fact ...
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