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Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful

This September has been disappointing for most equity investors. The broad-based S&P 500 index corrected roughly 5% and investor sentiment deteriorated further. However, those who read our most recent write-ups know that the recent correction wasn't surprising. A 5%-10% correction has been overdue, according to long-term market statistics. The S&P 500 increased for more than 200 days without correcting at least ...
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Who Cares About Bubbles? Just Buy That Dip!

Stocks are not done to the upside. Technicals remain constructive despite a likely 5%-10% dip. However, the air is getting very thin for bulls up here. Moreover, the long-term outlook is bearish. Extremely expensive valuations and evidence of excessive speculation among investors lead to this conclusion. The buy-the-dip crowd is jumping in more rapidly as dips continue to get shorter ...
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A Correction Is On The Way

Buyers wasted no time and initiated a fulminant risk-on rally after the mid-July correction. Consequently, the S&P 500 did not even reach a 5% correction and rallied to all-time highs. A 5% correction has been typically occurring about every 94 trading days since 1929. It is overdue as more than 180 trading days have passed since the last 5% correction ...
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A Speculative Bubble Keeps Inflating

Paul Samuelson famously stated that the stock market had predicted nine of the past five recessions. It’s a remark that is often repeated to mock the predictive accuracy of the stock market for the economy. Nonetheless, both move together. There were more than twenty recessions recorded by the National Bureau Of Economic Research in the past 170 years. All of ...
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Last Inning

Those who read our latest write-ups know that we have a long-term bearish outlook for the S&P 500. Extremely expensive valuations and evidence of excessive speculation among investors lead to this conclusion. Nonetheless, we have also stressed in the last few write-ups that technicals were intact and likely leading equities higher short term. Technicals Contradict Fundamentals Technical indicators remain constructive ...
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Bitcoin Bubble In Terminal Stage

Bitcoin had a stellar comeback and traded close to USD 65,000 per unit at its peak last month. There are stories of early transactions involving pizzas that were sold for a five-digit amount of the cryptocurrency around 2010. Regardless of being fact or fiction, the magnificent price increase in Bitcoin is unprecedented. An investment of just USD 100 in 2011 ...
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