China Shot The U.S. Equity Bull

Those who followed us know that our proprietary model concluded a high probability of entering a recession in 2020. The coronavirus outbreak came on top of that. It is most likely the straw that broke the camel's back as it ...
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Cyclical Commodities Don’t Buy The Reflation

Nokia lost its crown as the world's largest mobile phone manufacturer a while ago. They failed to adapt to changing circumstances as Apple launched the iPhone in 2007. Instead, Nokia continued investing in its proprietary Symbian platform. Meanwhile, the market ...
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U.S. Equities – Wheels Come Off

Retailers reach peak sales during the holiday season and relatively weak turnover in the subsequent period. They are aware and well prepared for this cyclicality. A similar relationship holds for the business cycle. Although the pattern fluctuates less regularly, business ...
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Macroeconomic Indicators Signal A Recession

"The stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions" - Paul Samuelson Significant equity market drawdowns have not always been followed by a fundamental confirmation in form of a recession. Paul Samuelson, among others, recognized this empirical fact ...
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Pennies In Front Of A Bulldozer

The website MacRumors has a trendy buyer's guide for Apple products. They look at the average product cycle and show how much time passed by since the latest release. Products that reached a mature stage of their cycle are rated ...
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Gold – A Victory Lap

A remarkable precious metals rally ended in early September. Gold reached almost into a long-term resistance cluster before the advance stopped. The subsequent correction has been unfolding for two months. Its character is choppy, shallow, and time-consuming. Those who are ...
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