CategoryComplimentary

Jay Powell surprised investors yesterday. The market interpreted his comments adversely after the fed raised interest rates again by another 75bp. Instead of pivoting dovish, the fed has turned even more hawkish. The step came on top of a substantial global tightening trend. There have been about 300 rate hikes across the globe over the …

Crypto enthusiasts may want to pay attention to technicals at this junction. Bitcoin is flirting with its long-term trend support. The largest cryptocurrency broke below the bullish trend channel, which carried it higher during the past decade. Technically oriented traders could sell into the falling market once they judge the trend break as confirmed. Hence, …

The negative news keeps on coming in for the housing sector. That’s no surprise, given the recent surge in mortgage rates. Pictet’s construction activity has been dropping sharply recently. The index is a composite gauge of actual US construction activity. It leads home prices by roughly one year historically. The index signals that the decline …

We’ve entered a traditionally difficult period of the year. US equities have had terrible seasonality during the second half of September. According to Bespoke Investment Group’s data, the median return amounted to roughly -0.5% during the second half of September. The mean result is even worse. Moreover, the losses were even more significant in the …

Multiple leading indicators flash recession signals. The yield curve has been inverted, credit spreads widened, and the labor market cooled down. Their lead time from cycle peak to the next recession has been historically a few months. However, the process has been ongoing already. Moreover, the leading indicators could be even late this time as …

US GDP contracted in both Q1/2022 and Q2/2022. According to Lakshman Achuthan’s data, there has always been a recession on the back of two quarters of negative growth in the past 75 years. Moreover, our analysis reveals that every NBER recession in the US also triggered a double-digit decline during that same period. The stock …